59% of Kalshi Traders Bet Gemini Will Outshine ChatGPT and Grok In 2025

Edyme

August 19, 2025

59% of participants are betting that Gemini will hold the crown as the leading AI text model by year’s end, up from nearly 50% earlier in the week

59% of Kalshi Traders Bet Gemini Will Outshine ChatGPT and Grok In 2025

Prediction markets aren’t just for politics or sports anymore, they’re now turning their attention to artificial intelligence.

On Kalshi, a federally regulated prediction platform, traders are putting money on which large language model (LLM) will come out on top by the end of 2025.

Right now, the clear favorite is Google’s Gemini, with a majority of bettors backing its chances.

Gemini pulls ahead in market confidence

According to Kalshi data, 59% of participants are betting that Gemini will hold the crown as the leading AI text model by year’s end, up from nearly 50% earlier in the week. OpenAI’s ChatGPT, once the frontrunner, has seen its odds drop to 19% from 25.4%, while xAI’s Grok has fallen to 13% from 18.8%.

The wager will officially settle on December 31, 2025, based on rankings from the LM Arena Leaderboard, an open platform where users can interact with and evaluate leading AI systems.

So far, over $7.4 million in trading volume has poured into this prediction, highlighting the high level of interest in the outcome.

Google’s recent upgrades to Gemini may explain some of the optimism. On August 15, the company rolled out new features, including storybook mode, improved reasoning capabilities, and temporary chat options.

New Gemini Drops just dropped

Our regular update to what’s new in the Gemini app is here.

1/ Everything we shipped this month 🧵↓ pic.twitter.com/ml9vrt2ZIy
— Google Gemini App (@GeminiApp) August 15, 2025

In contrast, OpenAI has faced turbulence around its ChatGPT-5 release, with mixed user reviews and public criticism that prompted CEO Sam Altman to defend the product on X.

When you say GPT-5 is becoming “warmer” and “friendlier,” but actually you’re avoiding the real issue:
What’s upsetting users isn’t the tone, it’s your assumption that you get to define our emotional needs.

The value of GPT-4o wasn’t just about sounding human. It was about…
— Diana (@tian_tian_diana) August 16, 2025

Competitors face headwinds

Gemini’s rivals have also encountered hurdles. OpenAI’s missteps, combined with perception challenges, appear to have eroded confidence in its ability to maintain dominance.

Meanwhile, Elon Musk’s xAI project Grok has faced its own controversies, with users accusing the model of political bias and highlighting troubling incidents such as posts that allegedly praised Adolf Hitler, forcing the company to delete content.

While company strategies, and new features often shift market perceptions, prediction markets like Kalshi provide a unique snapshot of collective expectations. Whether Gemini holds on to its lead or competitors' rebound will depend on how these models evolve over the next year.

For now, the market is signaling one thing clearly which is that in the race for AI supremacy, traders believe Google’s Gemini has the strongest momentum heading into 2025.