Monad’s Mega ICO Falls Flat: Where Did the Hype Go?

Monad entered 2025 with high expectations and even higher community energy, promoted as a next-generation EVM chain capable of scaling Ethereum to speeds normally associated with Solana.

With strong technical claims, a record-breaking testnet, and $244 million in backing from major funds like Paradigm, many assumed its token sale would be one of the most aggressive in recent crypto memory.

Instead, when the public ICO finally went live on Coinbase’s new regulated sale platform, the market reaction was far more muted than anyone expected.

Monad ICO: a highly anticipated sale, minus the frenzy

Leading up to the token sale, sentiment around Monad was intense. Months of testnet activity saw millions of wallets interacting, thousands of builders joining, and memecoins flooding the ecosystem.

The project’s founders, former Jump Trading engineers, had positioned Monad as a technical-first chain, and the hype reflected that confidence. Early estimates placed Monad’s fully diluted valuation (FDV) anywhere from $5 billion to as high as $10 billion at launch.

Coinbase’s announcement that Monad would be the first project featured on its regulated sale platform added an extra layer of visibility. The sale terms were straightforward: $187.5 million to be raised at a $2.5 billion FDV, with 7.5 billion MON tokens offered over a multi-day window and allocation caps set for retail.

Yet instead of an instant sellout, something the market had grown accustomed to during peak cycles, participation lagged. Day one closed around $105 million in commitments, barely half the target, and activity slowed even further the following morning.

While pre-market perpetuals on Hyperliquid traded MON at roughly 1.6x the ICO price, that wasn’t enough to kick off broad participation.

With no first-come-first-served mechanic and a week-long sale window, urgency never materialized. Instead, retail took its time, and increasingly questioned whether the deal made sense.

Tokenomics, airdrop frustrations, and shifting market sentiment

Much of the hesitation centered on token distribution. More than 70% of the supply remains locked for the team, investors, and ecosystem allocations.

Public buyers received 7.5% of tokens, a share many argued was too small in comparison with the size of insider positions. Airdrop farmers who had spent months grinding the testnet echoed that sentiment, noting low allocations and aggressive Sybil filtering that left many empty-handed.

On social platforms, Monad supporters voiced concerns. One X usercalled the structure “a retail rug,” pointing to the gap between investor cost basis and public pricing.

Others pushed back, arguing that retail was getting access at a lower valuation than VCs paid in earlier rounds. Still, a growing number of users questioned whether a $2.5 billion FDV for a not-yet-launched network was justified.

Despite the mixed sentiment, Polymarket traders priced a high probability, 94%, that Monad’s FDV would remain above $2 billion the day after launch.

With mainnet and token generation scheduled for November 24, the community waits to see how the token sale unfolds post-mainnet launch.

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