Stock Picks or Side Bets? Polymarket Launches Company Earnings Prediction Markets

Edyme

September 16, 2025

One of the first live markets is centered on Bullish (BLSH), the crypto exchange that is set to release its second-quarter results on September 17

Decentralized prediction market platform Polymarket is moving into new territory: corporate earnings.

The platform, which recently received regulatory clearance to operate in the U.S., announced on Monday that it has launched earnings-focused prediction markets in partnership with Stocktwits, the social network popular among retail traders.

Prediction meets corporate earnings

Through the new collaboration, users can now wager on whether major publicly traded companies will meet, exceed, or miss their quarterly earnings estimates.

The move blends Polymarket’s blockchain-powered prediction tools with Stocktwits’ active investor community, creating a space where real-time probabilities meet crowd-driven discussions on sentiment and market expectations.

One of the first live markets is centered on Bullish (BLSH), the crypto exchange that is set to release its second-quarter results on September 17. On Polymarket, participants currently assign about a 65% probability that Bullish will beat analyst earnings-per-share (EPS) forecasts.

Other listed companies include FedEx, offering traders a chance to gauge consensus expectations before official reports are published.

“Prediction markets transform uncertainty into clarity by turning big questions—like earnings—into simple, tradable outcomes with transparent pricing,” said Matthew Modabber, Polymarket’s chief marketing officer.

Stocktwits founder Howard Lindzon added that the partnership provides a new lens for interpreting investor sentiment: “Polymarket has created an entirely new way to understand news and expectations, and Stocktwits is the place where millions of investors already gather to share ideas.”

From macro bets to earnings calls

Polymarket is no stranger to high-volume markets. Its “Fed decision in September?” contract, which speculates on whether the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut interest rates has already attracted over $139 million in trading volume.

Bettors currently see a 91% chance of a 25-basis-point cut. The addition of earnings-based markets expands Polymarket’s range from macroeconomic bets into company-specific outcomes.

The launch comes just weeks after CEO Shane Coplan confirmed that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) had cleared Polymarket to operate in the U.S. The clearance provides the platform with a regulated path to expand its offerings and attract a broader user base.